Decadal Application of WRF/Chem under Future Climate and Emission Scenarios: Impacts of Technology-Driven Climate and Emission Changes on Regional Meteorology and Air Quality

This work presents new climate and emissions scenarios to investigate changes on future meteorology air quality in the U.S. Here, we employ a dynamically downscaled Weather Research Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF/Chem) simulations that use two Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (i.e., A1B B2) integrated explicitly projected from novel Technology Driver Model (TDM). The 2046–2055 show widespread reductions most gas aerosol species under both TDM/A1B TDM/B2 over WRF/Chem combined effects of emission changes, maximum daily average 8-h ozone (MDA8 h O3) increases by ~3 ppb across mainly due near-surface temperature background methane concentrations, some contributions localized TDM near urban centers. For however, MDA8 O3 is widely decreased, except centers where relative formation regimes leads increased O3. number exceedance days > 70 ppb) for entire domain significantly reduced grid cell up 43 (domain ~0.5 days) 62 ~2 scenarios, respectively, while western U.S., larger lead nonattainment areas, especially scenario. (for B2 scenarios) will decreases 24-h (DA24 h) PM2.5 eastern (max decrease 93 µg m−3). are dominated anthropogenic secondary decreasing change. DA24 35 m−3) which suggests may synergistically areas future.